“The debate about NAFTA has been a red herring,” said the CATO Institute’s Dan Ikenson in a debate this morning with AAM director Scott Paul on Minnesota Public Radio. 

NAFTA has been a significant topic of debate recently among the various presidential candidates and Ikenson disagrees with criticism of it by Senators Obama and Clinton.  As proof of NAFTA’s worthiness, he cites the fact that since the agreement was passed, “U.S. investors have invested about $2 billion a year in Mexican manufacturing.”

An Economic Policy Institute (EPI) study seems to clash with Ikenson’s rosy pronouncements of the trade deal’s legacy, though.  According to their study, NAFTA has claimed a net 1 million U.S. jobs in the past 15 years or so.  Perhaps that’s because the $2 billion in annual Mexican manufacturing investment that Ikenson praises has not been equaled by a concurrent investment in new American manufacturing.

With NAFTA serving as the launching point for a debate on free trade, Paul and Ikenson sparred over competing approaches to U.S. trade policy.  Paul termed NAFTA an “experiment”—“the first major free trade agreement with a country that’s still developing”—and one that, with hindsight, needs “some adjustments,” including “workers rights and environmental protection.”    

Ikenson, however, sees NAFTA as a success and views increased labor and environmental standards as “fig leaves for protectionism.”  He suggested instead that when manufacturing moves to developing countries, it “raises living standards.”

  This poses an interesting contradiction: It’s hard to raise living standards while simultaneously dismissing labor and environmental concerns.  And the projected boost in Third World living standards that Ikenson touts for U.S. trading partners very much includes countries like China, where rampant labor abuse, air pollution, and poisoned lakes vie for worldwide attention with a litany of tainted exports.

Ironically, Ikenson also dismisses the $711 billion U.S. trade deficit, saying: “I don’t think the trade deficit has anything to do with trade policy…it’s a function of different patterns of savings…the way to change that is to encourage better consumption abroad…as the U.S. economy slows down, the trade deficit is growing smaller.”

It’s true that the seemingly endless U.S. trade deficit has declined somewhat during periods of recession—when consumers have less money to spend.  But it belies common sense to think that a vast slowing of the economy in order to balance our accounts is a sound prescription for future prosperity.

Ikenson believes that the U.S. benefits overall from an abundance of ever cheaper consumer imports.  But the real problem is the long-term consequences of this approach.  Day-to-day, it seems great to buy a $5 Chinese t-shirt instead of a $10 American t-shirt.  But when the U.S. textile worker loses his good-paying job at the t-shirt factory, and downshifts to a $7/hour retail job, it’s hard to see how many t-shirts he’ll be able to buy at all. 

  The bottom line is jobs.  A large-scale disenfranchisement of millions of manufacturing workers presents a worrying scenario.  And the resulting consequences are equally troubling: Unemployed or underemployed workers can not pay the taxes to support schools, hospitals, and communities; they can’t pay for healthcare; they can’t adequately provide for their families.

Mr. Ikenson needs to look at the big picture and make serious adjustments for the failings of the current model of trade that he and his colleagues espouse.

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The New York Times reported today on a study commissioned by the Kaiser Family Foundation.  According to their research, a 1% rise in the nation’s unemployment rate could lead to more than 1 million new Americans losing their health insurance.  The possibility of this is very real, given the current, tenuous state of the economy.

  The study also noted that the number of uninsured Americans has continued to grow over the past decade, with 47 million American currently lacking healthcare, a full 16 percent of the population.

One reason for the decline in those with health insurance may be the ongoing erosion of middle class manufacturing jobs that previously supported millions of families.  More than 3.5 million manufacturing workers have lost their jobs since 2000, and unfortunately, few of them have been able to find new factory jobs offering the same pay and benefits as their previous work.  If one multiplies that 3.5 million times three or four family members dependent on a job’s healthcare benefits, we begin to see just one of the many problems that spin off of a wholesale reduction in America’s manufacturing workforce.

It’s often suggested that Americans are moving beyond manufacturing though, migrating to a purely “information services” economy.  While such a concept remains rather abstract in practice, it’s questionable whether these projected information industry jobs could avoid the same outsourcing fate that previously claimed manufacturing’s lunchbox.

Therefore it seems logical not to wantonly risk the livelihoods of millions of hardworking Americans.  A better approach might be the mature view that good-paying manufacturing work offers tangible benefits for the nation as a whole.  Employed factory workers mean families with healthcare.  Thus, the price tag of the “Made in USA” goods these people produce carries with it the self-reinforcing costs of their health insurance.

  But when these people are out of work, they no longer pay into local and state tax rolls.  At the same time, however, city and state agencies must find additional resources to help these uninsured Americans.  Possibly the most troubling consequence of the increasing uninsured is the Kaiser study’s projection that 60% of them will be children.  There’s something poorly conceived in any economic planning that fails to account for the next generation of America’s working taxpayers.

It would be nice if these worrying scenarios were not looming so close on the horizon.  And so, a pragmatic approach would be to try to stem the loss of valuable factory jobs and rebuild our more prosperous manufacturing sector.  To do so, however, requires the vision to revise current U.S. trade policy.  Until we staunch the bleeding and begin to retain these jobs, we’ll see an accelerating pattern of all the ingredients for a bad economic storm: laid-off workers, declining tax rolls, greater demand for social services from cash-strapped civic services. 

If only our elected representatives demonstrated sufficient foresight and adopted en masse a plan to save American manufacturing.

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  AAM hosted a national conference call today to discuss the impact that trade issues and manufacturing job losses will have on the Indiana primary. AAM’s Scott Paul was joined on the call by a cross-section of Indiana business and labor, including: United Steelworkers Director Jim Robinson, U.S. Steel Vice President Terry Straub, and Gary, Indiana steelworker Larry Warman.

Indiana has lost more than 109,800 manufacturing jobs since 2000.  With exit polls in Pennsylvania showing that more than half of Pennsylvania’s Democratic voters considered the economy the most important issue facing the country, it’s a good bet that job worries will be a key issue with Indiana voters as well.

During the conference call, which drew questions from leading national media, including the Wall Street Journal and Washington Post, Scott Paul made the point that flawed U.S. trade policies–and particularly the U.S. trade imbalance with China–has had a detrimental effect on U.S. manufacturing.

Echoing that sentiment, U.S. Steel’s Terry Straub emphasized that U.S. Steel is not anti-trade, but finds outright cheating by other countries “unacceptable.”  Straub said that when the U.S. “plays by one set of rules and our trading partners use another, the system doesn’t work.”  He added that China is now responsible for roughly half the world’s steel production, something he finds “stunning.”

China’s explosive growth in steel production capacity is fueled in large part by massive government subsidization.  Scott Paul cited a recent AAM study that found Beijing handing out more than $27 billion in energy subsidies to its steel producers since 2000.  As Jim Robinson of the United Steelworkers noted, these subsidies, along with illegal currency manipulation and dumping, can profoundly affect the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers, and warned that Congress “shouldn’t wait for the next downturn in order to take action.”

As to how these issues will play in Indiana, Larry Warman, a production worker at the U.S. Steel plant in Gary, cited his fellow plant workers’ existing concerns about NAFTA.  He suggested that many of his fellow steelworkers have long been worried by NAFTA, and will bring that viewpoint to next week’s primary.  And so, whichever Democratic candidate can more fully articulate solutions to lost jobs may well win the Hoosier primary.

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AAM’s ‘China Cheats, Indiana Loses’ campaign has caught the eye of the Washington Post.

  With economic worries entrenched in the minds of voters – and no end in sight – AAM brought its ‘China Cheats’ campaign to Indiana today, and the Indianapolis Star has already taken notice.

The campaign, ‘China Cheats, Indiana Loses,’ will continue through the May 6th Indiana primary and urge the presidential candidates to hold China accountable for unfair trade practices that result in job losses. 

AAM director Scott Paul said: “Voters who care about the economy are the dominant demographic for the primary candidates.  The candidate who clearly commits to solving the China crisis is going to win Indiana.”

Paul noted that Indiana has lost over 45,200 jobs to China since 2001 and that until Washington shows the resolve to confront China’s brazen dumping, subsidies, and currency manipulation, these job losses will continue.

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The Council on Foreign Relations offered some ideas recently on “revitalizing the U.S. economy in a globalized world.”  And while doing so, they targeted comments made by both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama at AAM’s Presidential Candidates Forum on Manufacturing last week in Pittsburgh:

In comments to the Alliance for American Manufacturing in Pittsburgh, Clinton and Obama emphasized they favored trade deals that were “fair” to U.S. workers and included labor and environmental protections. Both also support cutting subsidies to companies that outsource jobs overseas.

 While the Council saw little merit in Obama’s and Clinton’s views, they did suggest that “the diverse landscape of Pennsylvania offers a useful laboratory for exploring ideas on reviving the U.S. economy.”  They acknowledged that “Pennsylvania has taken a hit to its manufacturing base—losing 200,000 jobs.”  But they see hopeful possibilities in the state’s “innovation, human capital, and knowledge economy jobs.”

Ironically, their editorial is accompanied by a photo of the shuttered Bethlehem Steel Mills plant.  The caption under the photo notes that “a remnant of Pennsylvania’s old manufacturing sector is being converted into a hotel casino complex.”

ManufactureThis would chuckle if the truth weren’t so disappointing.  It’s simply hard to equate lost manufacturing jobs with the presumptive cocktail waitress jobs offered by a looming casino.  It happens that manufacturing pays well, and is so interwoven with the surrounding economy that it can support four to five other jobs.  It’s hard to imagine a waitressing job accomplishing the same for a hard-hit Pennsylvania community.  But the Council sees it differently.

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 In today’s Wall Street Journal, John McKinnon noted that “Ahead of Tuesday’s primary in Pennsylvania, the focal point of unhappiness over trade might have begun shifting toward China, in part due to the influence of steelworkers and steel companies. Through a group called the Alliance for American Manufacturing, the steel interests launched a statewide ad campaign criticizing Chinese export practices.”

 It’s nice to see that our work is paying off.  Perhaps John is referring to our recent Presidential Candidates’ forum in Pittsburgh, which received extensive news coverage.  Over the weekend, the St. Louis Post Dispatch ran a front page piece by Bill Lambrecht that did an excellent job of both covering the event and explaining how illegally subsidized steel from China is undercutting domestic U.S. producers.

AAM’s “force of nature” Senior Analyst, Kerri Houston, clocked in with a strong editorial in the Scranton Times-Tribune last week.  Kerri noted that Pennsylvanians need to ask serious questions of the candidates as to how they’ll address China’s cheating on trade agreements.

  We’ve included Kerri’s op-ed below, for your interest.

Time for bull in China shop 
BY KERRI HOUSTON
GUEST COLUMNIST

A big red boot with a prominent yellow star is running roughshod over Pennsylvania, stomping on jobs in its wake.

Pennsylvania’s workers and business owners are well aware of the impact of its footprint, as are the state’s governor, legislators, and the employees of the Pennsylvania’s Unemployment Compensation office.

It appears that the only souls that have not noticed the state’s devastating and ongoing job losses to China belong to presidential candidates.

Although manufacturing still accounts for $73.9 billion of Pennsylvania’s gross state product and is the largest individual contributor to the statewide economy, the state has lost more than 207,400 manufacturing jobs since 2000; 78,000 of those have been lost to China since 2001.

As a result of its cheating, China has accumulated the largest trade surplus in global history, and a $256 billion annual trade deficit with the U.S. alone. Despite winning through dishonest trade, China has so far incurred no cost.

Pennsylvania is an ideal manufacturing state. With a sophisticated highway and railway network and water transport links, goods quickly can be shipped from Pennsylvania. The state also has a highly skilled work force and an April 22 primary showdown between Democratic candidates Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama that is currently giving it a loud voice.

Pennsylvania’s unemployment rates took a sharp upward turn five years ago, and its current 4.9 percent rate belies pockets of higher unemployment. Some mid-state counties such as Cambria and Somerset have unemployment rates above 6.1 percent.

In our global economy, it is reasonable to expect a flow of labor and trade, but Pennsylvanians should not have to compete with economic cheating and worker exploitation.

China ignores international treaty obligations and flaunts its non-compliance fearlessly. Although it promised to end currency manipulation when joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, it continues undervaluing its currency, making its goods cheaper and ours more expensive. Chinese manufacturers, predominately owned by the government, are given free land, infrastructure, and “loans” with no expectation of payback.

In the last five years, the Chinese government poured $52 billion of subsidies into its state-owned steel industry.

Chinese manufacturing benefits financially from ignoring accepted environmental safety regulations. Waterways and wells in China run red and purple with dyes and toxins. Many Chinese factories disregard international norms for workers by embracing low pay, forced labor and deplorable conditions for workers.

The migration of jobs to China also has serious national security implications. Military equipment sits idle in repair centers as the few American companies that provide spare parts or the tools needed to attach them have dwindled. Humvees receive armor at an agonizing pace as only one U.S. manufacturer of armored steel remains.

China’s profits from its highly subsidized manufacturers that allow it to increase its military funding rapidly — by 18.2 percent last year, much of it focused on emerging military space applications.

Despite the ability for the U.S. to address China’s cheating through existing trade laws, our government has done little. But Pennsylvania’s place as an important swing state in November provides an opportunity for Pennsylvanians to pose questions to presidential hopefuls about U.S. job losses and China’s economic threat.

None of the frontrunners from either party have addressed China’s cheating or its effect on our nation’s manufacturing and security.

Pennsylvania citizens have earned the right to ask: “If you are president, what are you going to do about enforcing our trade laws and reversing the cheating that makes it impossible for us to compete fairly in the global marketplace?”

If the people don’t ask, the candidates can’t answer.
 
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 According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), China has passed the United States to become the world’s second largest exporter.  Only Germany exports more goods per year.

 One could ask how an impoverished nation like China, struggling to feed and employ its more than 1 billion inhabitants, could export $1.2 trillion worth of goods in 2007, and at a 26% improvement from the previous year.

 The answer is that China’s ruling regime has made a very deliberate and ruthless practice of building their nation’s manufacturing juggernaut.  In complete disregard of humane labor and environmental standards, they have raced to build massive factories across a host of industries.  While air pollution has become a serious problem in the major cities, and industrial runoff has fouled food and water supplies, Beijing has also steadfastly undervalued the nation’s currency—even though such a practice passes inflationary costs on to their citizens. 

 The result of this reckless, “produce-at-all-costs” mentality is a one-sided trading relationship.  Unfortunately, this slipshod approach has led to numerous unsafe products, with fatally tainted blood thinning medication being just the latest in a string of items ranging from lead-painted toys to poisoned dog food.

China’s currency manipulation, like its rampant subsidies and dumping of artificially devalued products, violates accepted rules of world trade.  Beijing’s continuation of these market-distorting practices is beginning to pose serious questions for the stability of world trade.  As the WTO noted, a further slowdown in global trade “could cut trade much more sharply.”

While it’s clear that China’s reckless production has harmed in its workers (who are prohibited from organizing for better labor conditions), the fallout has made its way to the United States.  The EPA estimates that one-fourth of all California air pollution is traceable to China.  And an EPI report found that the rising U.S. trade deficit with China, which clocked in at a stunning $256 billion in 2007, has cost the U.S. more than 1.8 million jobs since 2001.

Beijing is accomplishing its goal, though.  It is cheating its way to the top of the manufacturing pile, and damn the consequences.

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KDKA-TV (Pittsburgh) has posted uncut footage of Senator Clinton and Senator Obama addressing AAM’s Presidential Candidates’ Forum on Manufacturing. 

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